Doomsday Preppers, the 3% Solution
I, like many of you, watched the start of the new season of Doomsday Preppers. One thing struck me after watching the two hours’ worth of shows, the low odds that the “experts” felt the preppers were preparing for. Hyper inflation, EMP, Madrid fault earthquake, California earthquake, riots, terrorism, and all the others reasons that folks prepare were listed rather low as a probability.
Ok, I understand that some things are well within the realm of possibility, but low in the realm of probability. Just because something can happen doesn’t mean it will happen. Elizabeth Shue could leave her husband and become my mistress, but really is that ain’t gonna happen. Possible but not probably.
I am going to pick a number out of the air to use as an example. My number may be close or way off, but for this effort we will use it anyway. Let us say that the chance of any event happening is only 3%. Earthquake, 3%, terrorist attack, 3%, hyper inflation, 3%, and so on. That is a low number yet still within the possible range. Now, make a list of all the things that can happen. Add EMP, riots, peak oil, drought, global warming, super volcano, and all the rest of the things we have ever thought about. To my line of thinking we should now add all of those 3%’s together and we get a fairly high odd of SOMETHING happening. It doesn’t have to be something far-fetched like a Lake Michigan Tsunami wiping out western Michigan. (Probably a lower number than 3% chance.) All we have to do is realize that something can happen.
Ten, fifteen, maybe twenty different things are mentioned as reasons for prepping. If you add that 3% to each one it doesn’t take long to get to a 30%, 40% or 60% chance that something can happen. Those are not great odds. Even if my 3% number is off we can still be looking at a fifty-fifty change or even one in four chance of something bad happening.
If I were telling Nat Geo my reasons for prepping it would not be one thing alone. I have taken the shotgun approach for my prepping and plan for … read more